Bank Indonesia's survey predicts that retail sales will still contract in February 2021, as reflected in a weakening Retail Sales Index (RSI) of 0.7% (MoM) or lower than the previous month's contraction of 4.3% (MoM).

The information and communication equipment group and the spare parts and accessories group are predicted to chart positive growth, bolstering retail sales performance. On an annual basis, retail sales performance may be relatively stable, with a Retail Sales Index (RSI) growth of -16.5% (YoY) in February 2021, compared to -16.4% (YoY) in the preceding month.

The retail sales of some commodities, such as clothing, cultural and recreational goods, spare parts and accessories, and information and communication equipment, are showing signs of improvement, although still contracting.

In terms of prices, inflationary pressure in the next three months (April 2021) will increase, while it will decrease in the next six months (July 2021). The coming three months General Price Expectation Index (GPEI) was 156.9, increasing from 149.7 in the previous month.

This increase is in line with entering the month of Ramadan and preparation for Idul Fitri. Meanwhile, GPEI for the next six months amounted to 153.5, down from the previous month's amount of 164.8, supported by smooth distribution and adequate supply.