The Retail Sales Survey results (RSS) indicate an improvement in monthly retail sales performance in February 2021.

"The Real Sales Index (RSI) for February 2021 grew -2.7% (mtm), improving compared to -4.3% (mtm) in January 2021," Bank Indonesia said on the website on Monday (12/4).

Respondents said that increased community demand during Chinese New Year HBKN and national holidays drove the improvement. Repairs occurred in most goods, such as motorized fuel, other household appliances, and spare parts and accessories.

Based on the RSS results, respondents predicted an increase in retail sales performance to continue in March 2021. This is reflected in the RSI for March 2021, projected to grow by 2.9% (mtm), in line with increasing public demand amid favorable weather.

Information from the Agency for Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysics or BMKG supports that the average rainfall is in the medium range (50-150 mm) and has passed the rainy season's peak. All groups recorded increased sales performance, particularly the other goods group, including the clothing sub-group and the cultural and creative goods group that recorded positive growth.

On an annual basis, retail sales are predicted to improve and grow by -17.1% (YoY) from -18.1% (YoY). Improvement occurred in almost all commodity groups surveyed, especially the clothing staple group, the motorized fuel group, and the cultural and recreational goods group.

In terms of prices, respondents predict inflationary pressure in the next three months (May 2021) will be relatively stable, while in the next six months (August 2021), it will decrease. The General Price Expectation Index (GPEI) for the next three months (May) was 156.4, stable from the previous month, supported by an estimate of sufficient supply and smooth distribution.

On the other hand, GPEI for the next six months (August) is 141.7, lower than 153.5 in the previous month, influenced by relatively low post-Ramadhan festive demand and smooth distribution of goods.