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Monday, Dec-9 2019 10:17 WIB
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Berharap Kenaikan Cukai Selamatkan HMSP
Published: 8 Nov 2019 07:12 WIB


IMQ, Jakarta —  Samuel Sekuritas memperkirakan kenaikan cukai pada 2020 akan mendorong rerata harga penjualan (ASP) PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP) kembali naik 20% yoy, namun pangsa pasar dapat terjaga. 

Analis Samuel Sekuritas Calista Riva mengatakan, pangsa pasar HMSP pada sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini turun sekitar 130 bps yoy menjadi 31,7% terimbas ASP yang naik 7%. Pada 2020, HMSP kembali menaikan Harga Jual Eceran secara bertahap hingga 46,3% yoy, dengan kenaikan ASP pabrik 20% yoy.

Hal ini berdasarkan kenaikan cukai 2020 meningkat dengan rincian SKM 25,4% yoy, SPM sebesar 26,4% yoy, serta SKT sekitar 16,4% yoy.

“Namun, kenaikan HJE HMSP lebih rendah dibanding kompetitor Tier 1 seperti PT Gudang Garam Tbk yang naik 61,6% yoy dan Djarum tumbuh 51,7% yoy. Tentu ini akan membuat HMSP lebih mudah untuk mempertahankan pangsa pasarnya di 2020,” papar Calista.

Ia mengestimasikan akan terjadi penurunan volume sekitar 10,9% yoy yang berdampak pada rendahnya pertumbuhan penjualan sepanjang 2020 sebesar 6% yoy. Beban biaya tetap meningkat sehingga laba operasional hanya tumbuh 0,7% yoy, sehingga laba bersih bakal stagnan sekitar 0,3% yoy dengan NPM -80 bps yoy menjadi 11,8%.

“Namun di tahun 2021 dengan tarif kenaikan cukai yang wajar di 10% – 11%, volume akan berbalik naik 5,55%, sehingga pendapatan terdongkrak naik 8,5% yoy, laba operasional juga tumbuh 11,9% yoy dan laba bersih naik 7,8% yoy,” jelasnya.

Pada kuartal III ini, penjualan HMSP turun 5,6% yoy atau 0,5% QoQ sebesar Rp 26,8 triliun, sebab ASP stagnan dan volume turun 5,7% yoy menjadi 25 miliar batang. Al hasil, laba operasional juga melemah 6,6% yoy, (0,1% QoQ) menjadi Rp4,3 triliun. Laba bersih tercatat sebesar Rp3,43 triliun atau turun 4,1% yoy (1,6% QoQ).

“Kami merekomendasikan beli saham HMSP dengan target harga Rp2.750 yang mencerminkan PE 2020 sekitar 22 kali dan PBV-nya 7,3 kali,” ujarnya.
Author: Susan Silaban
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